Istanbul Earthquake

Istanbul is located near a major fault line, the North Anatolian Fault, and experts anticipate a potentially devastating earthquake in the future. This earthquake is likely to be a powerful strike-slip earthquake, with a magnitude potentially exceeding 7.0. The city’s older infrastructure and dense population make it particularly vulnerable to the severe consequences of such an earthquake. While it’s impossible to predict when it will happen, Istanbul is focusing on preparedness and improving its infrastructure to mitigate the potential damage.

A recent statement by Prof. Dr. Marco Bohnhoff, a researcher at the German Research Centre for Geosciences, has revealed that the expected earthquake in Istanbul is even more dangerous than previously thought. According to the most recent data gathered, the next big quake will be no less than 7 on the Richter Scale. The head of Bosphorus Observatory, Dogan Kalafat, has stated that there is a 50% chance that the earthquake could happen in the next 7 years, and a higher than 90% chance that it will happen by 2070. With the likelihood of this devastating event happening, one must wonder how prepared this metropolitan city really is.

SO, IS ISTANBUL PREPARED FOR A BIG EARTHQUAKE?

Sadly, the answer is: not at all prepared. While there have been efforts to rebuild or reinforce risky structures, the city is so vast that it would take several centuries to adequately complete all of the necessary steps to prepare. According to Mr. Kalafat, at least 5,000 buildings are expected to collapse within seconds, with tens of thousands of other buildings either partially or fully damaged. With nearly 1 million buildings in the city, these numbers might even be optimistic.

Experts have warned that in a major earthquake, 60-80% of buildings in Istanbul would receive some sort of damage, with 20-40% being very badly damaged. Almost all studies estimate that the loss of life would be staggering, with more than 45,000 lives lost in the 1999 earthquake in a rural area near Istanbul. It has been 25 years since then, and Turkey was expected to be much more prepared than it currently is.

There are areas of Istanbul that are declared more vulnerable than others, such as Zeytinburnu, a fast-growing suburb to the west of the city, built on soft soil near the Marmara Sea. Seyda Sever, who works for a disaster awareness campaign group, spends a lot of time in Zeytinburnu, trying to help its inhabitants prepare themselves for a quake. With the inevitable earthquake looming, it is imperative that Istanbul’s residents and authorities take the necessary steps to minimize the loss of life and property.

2023 EARTHQUAKES IN SOUTH-EASTERN TURKEY AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS

The devastating earthquake that struck southeastern Turkey in February 2023, with a possible death toll of a hundred thousand people, has brought renewed attention to the looming threat of a potentially catastrophic earthquake in Istanbul. Experts have warned for years that the city is at high risk for a major earthquake due to its location on the North Anatolian Fault, and that the consequences could be catastrophic.

With the recent tragedy in southeastern Turkey, the urgency of the situation has only grown, as it has become clear that the city is not adequately prepared for a disaster of this scale. The potential loss of a million lives underscores the need for immediate action to bolster the city’s infrastructure and emergency response capabilities, as well as to raise awareness and preparedness among the population.

You may check out our article about the safety of traveling to Turkey in 2024.

RECENT VLOG

Here is a brand new video in which the filmmakers provide an update on the current state of Antakya, Turkey, one year after a devastating earthquake that killed over 50,000 people and left 1.5 million homeless.

Antakya (formerly Antioch) is a deeply historic city. Founded in the 4th century BC, it flourished as a major center of the Hellenistic world, and later held importance within the Roman and Byzantine Empires. Antakya is significant to early Christianity and was a pivotal location during the Crusades, even serving as the capital of the Principality of Antioch.

The earthquake destroyed thousands of buildings, causing an estimated damage of over $350 billion. The video documents the ongoing struggle of the affected community to rebuild their lives, with many people still living in temporary shelters and facing legal battles over land ownership and insurance payouts.

The filmmakers (Mick and Trudie) also highlight the damage to historical sites, including churches, mosques, and synagogues, and share personal experiences of the pre-earthquake charm of the city. Despite the hardships, the people of Antakya maintain a positive attitude and are working to restore their community, with the help of organizations like Buradayiz Hatay. Mick and Trudie encourage viewers to support the organization and the people of Antakya through donations and encouragement.

Mick and Trudie are passionate filmmakers who create quality films showcasing the beauty of Turkey. Mick, fondly known as “Mick Amca” (Uncle Mick), speaks fluent Turkish – unusual for an English person – while Trudie continues to learn the language. Their channel was originally created to inspire others to explore and appreciate the many wonders Turkey has to offer.